FIFA World Cup Draw: Which Cities Will Profit the Most

**Jasper Ribbers:**Welcome back to another episode of RevUp, where we talk about revenue management every Monday as part of the Get Paid For Your Pad podcast. Today we are talking about the World Cup because the match schedule for the tournaments in the United States, Canada, and Mexico has just been released. We now know which teams will play in which cities for the group stage, and we can start making informed predictions about where the first knockout games will be played.

During the first couple of weeks, the group stage takes place. Each team is placed in a group with three other teams, and everyone plays each other once. After those matches, the first and second place teams advance to the knockout round, which is the round of 32. Sixteen teams will be eliminated. Some of the highest ranking third place teams will also move on. Out of 48 teams, only 16 will drop out, so most teams will reach the round of 32.

We cannot know which teams will finish first or second, but we can make educated guesses based on their strength and expected performance. That means we can also begin forecasting which cities will host certain teams in the knockout round.

Before diving into that, I am going to walk through the full match schedule city by city and explain which games are big, which countries travel well, and which matchups may create strong pricing opportunities. We have already seen early bookings appear in some markets, and I will share what kind of rates guests are paying so you can price your units effectively for the World Cup.

Let us start with Vancouver. The first match is Australia versus one of the European qualifying teams. Some teams have not qualified yet, and additional playoff matches are coming. For now, Australia will face either Turkey, Romania, Kosovo, or Slovakia. Australia will play in Vancouver on June 13.

To understand whether a game will attract strong demand, consider how popular soccer is in the country and how far travelers must go. Australia is not a major soccer country. Other sports such as Australian football and cricket are more popular. It is also far away from Vancouver, which makes travel long and expensive. Another factor is visa requirements. Travelers who need a visa may delay booking until they have approval. Some may book early and hope for the best, but most will wait to confirm they can travel.

The other games in Vancouver are Canada versus Qatar, New Zealand versus Egypt, Switzerland versus Canada, and New Zealand versus Belgium. Qatar is a small country. Egypt is large but visa requirements may slow booking. New Zealand and Australia do not have visa requirements. Belgium is the only match with a strong soccer country in this set. Belgium is a small country, but they have a strong team and fans who travel. That match on June 26 will likely see earlier bookings.

Moving to Seattle, the matches are Belgium versus Egypt, the United States versus Australia, a European qualifying team versus Qatar, and Egypt versus Iran. Belgium is again one of the stronger nations. The United States versus Australia will draw interest, but most attendees will be locals. For home country games, the crowd tends to be domestic, which limits the impact on short term rental demand.

San Francisco will host Qatar versus Switzerland, Austria versus Jordan, Paraguay versus a European qualifier, Jordan versus Algeria, and Paraguay versus Australia. These are not top tier soccer nations. Paraguay will bring some traveling fans. Austria and Switzerland will bring some, but overall these are not high impact matchups.

Los Angeles has the United States versus Paraguay, Iran versus New Zealand, Switzerland versus a European qualifier, Belgium versus Iran, and the United States versus a European qualifier. Again, none of these are major global draws. The biggest influence will come from domestic attendees rather than international travelers.

Next is Guadalajara. Korea plays a European qualifier. Mexico faces Korea. Colombia plays an intercontinental playoff team that could be Jamaica, New Caledonia, or possibly Congo. The biggest game in Guadalajara is Uruguay versus Spain. Spain is one of the strongest soccer nations in the world and will attract a huge traveling crowd. Uruguay is also a strong team. This match on June 26 is one to watch for significant ADR lift.

Mexico City hosts Mexico versus South Africa, Uzbekistan versus Colombia, and Mexico versus a European qualifier. Mexico City is one of the largest cities in the world with a massive amount of hotel rooms. Because the city is so large, even big matches do not create the same pricing pressure as smaller markets. The effect on ADR will likely be modest compared to smaller host cities.

Monterrey hosts Tunisia versus a European qualifier, Tunisia versus Japan, and South Africa versus Korea. Japan is the strongest traveler of the group. Japan is large, wealthy, and soccer is very popular there. Korea also travels well. These could create moderate demand.

Houston hosts some major games. The first is Germany versus Ivory Coast. Germany is a top contender and a massive draw. Portugal plays a qualifier. The Netherlands plays a qualifier. Portugal then plays Uzbekistan. Saudi Arabia plays Cape Verde. Germany, Portugal, and the Netherlands will each bring substantial international travel. Cape Verde is a small island nation and unlikely to contribute many travelers.

Dallas also has strong matchups. The Netherlands plays Japan, which is a big match. England plays Croatia, one of the biggest games of the group stage. England is a major soccer nation and England fans travel heavily. Argentina plays Austria. Japan plays a European qualifier. Jordan plays Argentina. Every match in Dallas features at least one team that brings strong international demand, so Dallas will likely see elevated ADR across the board.

Kansas City hosts Argentina versus Algeria, Ecuador versus Curaçao, Tunisia versus the Netherlands, and Algeria versus Austria. Kansas City is one of the smallest markets in the tournament and has strict short term rental regulations, which means low inventory. Argentina is a massive draw. Ecuador is also a strong traveler. The Netherlands will bring fans. This is one of the cities where ADR could rise significantly, possibly several multiples.

Atlanta hosts Spain twice as well as South Africa versus a European qualifier, Spain versus Saudi Arabia, Haiti versus Morocco, and Uzbekistan versus an intercontinental playoff team. The Spain matches are the biggest. Spain is one of the most influential teams in the world.

Miami hosts Saudi Arabia versus Uruguay, Uruguay versus Cape Verde, Scotland versus Brazil, and Colombia versus Portugal. Scotland and Brazil will create a lively crowd. Brazil is one of the largest soccer nations in the world. Colombia versus Portugal is also a major matchup.

Toronto hosts Canada versus a European qualifier, Ghana versus Panama, Germany versus Ivory Coast, Panama versus Croatia, and Senegal versus a qualifier. Germany is the main draw here.

Boston hosts Haiti versus Scotland, Norway versus Italy, Scotland versus Morocco, England versus Ghana, and Norway versus France. Norway is a surprisingly strong outsider and recently beat Italy twice in qualification. They have one of the best strikers in the world. They will travel well. France is a top tier nation and the Norway versus France matchup is one of the biggest in the group stage.

Philadelphia hosts Ecuador versus Ivory Coast, Brazil versus Haiti, France versus a qualifier, Ivory Coast versus Curaçao, and Croatia versus Ghana. Brazil is one of the biggest soccer countries and will attract significant demand. Ecuador will also produce strong travel. Some nations such as Ghana have large communities already living in the United States, which further increases domestic attendance.

New York and New Jersey host Brazil versus Morocco, France versus Senegal, Norway versus Senegal, Ecuador versus Germany, and Panama versus England. These include several major matchups. New York, however, is a huge city with a very large amount of hotel rooms, so ADR may not be as elevated as in smaller markets.

Shifting to pricing expectations, the number of hotel rooms in each city is a major factor. Cities such as New York, Los Angeles, Miami, Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston have tens of thousands of hotel rooms. This limits ADR elevation. Smaller cities like Kansas City, Philadelphia, Boston, Seattle, and the San Francisco Bay Area have far less inventory. These markets may see the highest rate increases.

From the bookings we have seen so far, activity is still moderate. Some bookings are coming in, but occupancy is generally under 25 percent for most markets. Larger homes are booking first because group travelers plan early. Hosts who have not raised prices enough are being booked first because guests are targeting undervalued properties.

In Kansas City, current bookings show some units pricing 150 to 200 percent above last year. Rates could rise even higher, potentially reaching five to ten times normal levels for the biggest matches and especially in the knockout rounds. For major events like these, the knockout rounds can attract far more people than the stadium can hold. For some nations, reaching the final is a once in a lifetime moment, and fans travel simply to be in the city.

Even smaller matches will likely sell out because summer is already high season. Most markets would have strong occupancy regardless of the World Cup. This means inventory will be tight during match days, especially in smaller cities.

To monitor the market, use tools like PriceLabs and create ADR reports to track what competitors are pricing and what guests are paying. Hosts who stay proactive will capture the most upside.

If you want us to manage your revenue for the World Cup and you operate over one million dollars in annual top line revenue, visit freewyldfoundry.com/report for a personalized revenue review.

Thank you for listening and we will see you next time.